Devils' Luke Hughes poised for big-time 2024-25 season
The 20-year-old defenseman broke out for 47 points in 82 games last season.
Devils defenseman Luke Hughes was one of the most anticipated prospects in New Jersey for a long time. The slick-skating Michigan Wolverine defenseman was the fourth-overall pick in 2021 and only improved his resume after two excellent seasons of college hockey.
After Michigan was eliminated from the 2023 Frozen Four, Hughes signed his entry-level contract and joined the Devils at the tail end of the 2022-23 season. He impressed in his two NHL games, scoring his first career goal, the game-winner in overtime of the season finale against Washington.
He played in three Stanley Cup Playoff games in the second round against Carolina and essentially certified that he would be a full-time NHLer in 2023-24. And he was.
In his first full NHL season, Hughes played in all 82 games, averaging a team-high 21:28 of ice time. He finished with 47 points (nine goals, 38 assists) and a minus-25 rating that was third from the bottom of the Devils’ roster. In other words, there was plenty of good but also plenty of room for growth. But his performance was good enough to earn him a spot on the NHL’s All-Rookie Team.
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Going into 2024-25, Hughes should be poised for a breakout season. Not only does he have a full regular season under his belt, one in which he and his club faced a ton of adversity, but he will also be receiving some very important help within the roster.
First, the return of Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton missed 62 games last season and eventually required season-ending surgery for a torn pectoral muscle. He is the Devils’ number-one defenseman who can eat up big minutes (averaged 21 minutes or more per game over each of the past five seasons).
Hamilton will also take tons of pressure off Hughes on both ends of the ice. With a career plus-68 rating, he has always been solid in his own end, but the 31-year-old really shines when attacking the opposing net.
In his only full season with New Jersey (2022-23), Hamilton finished with a career-high 74 points (22 goals, 52 assists) and a plus-23. All expectations were that he would have similar success in 2023-24, but the injury held him back and eventually ended his season far too early.
With Hamilton back, Hughes should be able to play more freely. He no longer has to be ‘the guy’ and can drop his minutes down a bit when needed. That is especially important if he hits a few slumps during his sophomore season, which most players do.
It also won’t hurt to have his brother, Jack Hughes, back in the lineup after he missed a big chunk of last season with an injury.
Aside from Hamilton and Jack, the full shake-up in the crease should provide Hughes, along with all New Jersey blueliners, a necessary boost. Let’s face it, the Devils have been in goaltending trouble ever since Martin Brodeur. Last season, they were dreadful, finishing with a team .890 save percentage and ranking 26th with 3.43 goals against per game.
That takes a toll. As a defenseman, you always have one eye toward your end of the ice anyway. Now imagine that you can’t trust your goalie to make the simplest of saves. That is when you overcommit, overthink and play too safe to the defensive side. It really can alter your entire game.
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Hughes is a solid defensive player, and will only get better. But like Hamilton, he is at his best on the other end of the ice. There’s a reason he racked up 87 points (27 goals, 60 assists) in only 80 career NCAA games with the Wolverines.
The Devils need him to be able to play free. With the addition of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen in net, he should be able to do that. That is likely to result in a big offensive explosion. Maybe even somewhere near Hamilton’s 74 points from two seasons ago.
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Of course, we can’t talk about Luke Hughes without mentioning his contract. Hughes is entering the final year of his three-year ELC and is going to be due a nice hefty raise before the 2025-26 season. He will make $925,000 this season.
A notable contact to compare him to is the recent eight-year, $68 million deal that Brock Faber signed with the Minnesota Wild. That contract comes with a cap hit of $8.5 million. Faber was a finalist for the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) last season and took a huge step with Minnesota, essentially becoming their best defenseman in only his second season.
Like Hughes, Faber still has one season left on his ELC, and the 21-year-old has both a similar path to the NHL and trajectory in the League to Hughes.
James Nichols of New Jersey Hockey Now did a deep dive into this comparison that is certainly worth checking out:
READ: How the Brock Faber Contract Impacts Devils Luke Hughes
While the Devils could opt for a bridge deal, somewhere in the three or four-year range, it seems likely they will lock Hughes up as quickly as possible. Sometimes, the player can drastically increase their value with a huge season, which is exactly what I expect Hughes to do next year.
If they do lock him up, he should also receive an eight-year contract somewhere in the same ballpark as Faber.